Should Population Decline  be Welcomed?

Insight into the Subject | 人口減少は歓迎すべき?

Should Population Decline be Welcomed?

According to statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, in 2019, the average number of children produced by one Japanese woman during her lifetime was 1.4. According to “World Statistics 2020,” 25.4% of the world’s population is under 15. In Japan it was 12.1%, which was one of the lowest figures compared to that of other countries. On the other hand, the average Japanese lifespan was 84.2 years old, making it the country with the world’s second longest lifespan after Hong Kong. As a result, the average age of a Japanese person is the highest in the world at 48.4 years old, according to UN population estimates. The Japanese government is encouraging marriage and supporting child rearing, because predictions indicate that the economy will slow down if the number of people of working age (over the age of 15 to under the age of 65) decreases. The low birthrate has a huge influence on the current pension system that supports the retired elderly population with pension funds paid by today’s active workforce. In 2017 the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research announced its prediction that the Japanese population will fall to less than 100 million in 2053 if the trend of declining birthrates continues. Since the dawn of history, the world’s population has continued to increase. A particularly rapid rise has been seen in modern times when it rose from 2.5 billion in 1950 to exceed seven billion in 2020. If the issue of the increasing global population remains unsolved, food shortages and other factors will before long put the existence of human beings into jeopardy. Out of the 196 nations that are members of the United Nations, 14 nations have populations that exceed 100 million as of 2019 and one of these is Japan. In spite of this situation, some nations are still adopting population policies similar to that which Japan once embraced with the slogan “be fruitful and multiply.” This is said to be due in part to a desire to increase their standing armies and to counteract high mortality rates among young children caused by having underdeveloped medical systems. Before modern times, wars, plagues and natural disasters played a part in keeping populations in check. Low birthrates are seen not only in Japan, but in other developed nations and some people take the view that this is keeping down population growth. It is predicted that many human jobs will be replaced by artificial intelligence in the near future. From a global perspective, Japan’s declining birth rate could be a welcome development.

厚生こうせい労働省ろうどうしょう
kousei'roudoushou
the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
no
from
統計とうけい
toukei
statistics
によると、
ni yoruto
according to
2019年にせんじゅうきゅうねん
nisennjyuukyuu nenn
twenty nineteen [year]
における、
ni okeru
in
1人ひとり
hitori
one
no
by
日本人にほんじん女性じょせい
nihonnjinn jyosei ga
Japanese woman
生涯しょうがい
syougai
(her) lifetime
ni
during
umu
produced
ども
kodomo
children
no
of
平均数へいきんすう
heikinnsuu ha
(the) average number
1.4人いってんよにん
ittennyoninn
one point four [people]
でした。
deshita.
was
世界せかい統計とうけい2020にせんにじゅう
sekaino toukei nisennnijyuu
world statistics twenty-twenty
によると、
niyoruto,
according to
世界せかい人口じんこう
sekai jinnkou
(the) world’s population
no
of
15歳じゅうごさい未満みまん
jyuugosai mimann
under fifteen
25.4%にじゅうごぉてんよんぱーせんと
nijyuugootenn'yonn'pa-sennto
twenty five point four percent
です。
desu.
is
日本にほん
nihonn
Japan
では
deha
in
12.1%じゅうにいてんいちぱーせんと
jyuuniitennichi'pa-sennto
twelve point one percent
で、
de,
(it) was which
ほかくに
hokano kuni
other countries
to
other countries
比較ひかくすると
hikaku suruto
compare
最少さいしょう
saisho
(the) lowest (figure)
です。
desu
was
一方いっぽう
ippou
on the other hand
2019年にせんじゅうきゅうねん
nisennjyuukyuu'nenn no
twenty-nineteen [year]
日本人にほんじん
nihonnjinn no
Japanese
平均へいきん寿命じゅみょう
heikinn jyumyou ha
(the) average lifespan
84.2歳はちじゅうよんてんにさい
hachijyuuyonntennni'sai
eighty four point twenty one years old
で、
de,
was
香港ほんこん
honnkonn
Hong Kong
いで
ni tsuide
after
世界せかい第2位だいにい
sekai dainii no
the world’s second
長寿国ちょうじゅこく
choujyukoku
longest lifespan (the) country (with)
です。
desu.
making it
そのため、
sonotame
as a result
国連こくれん人口じんこう推計すいけい
kokurenn no jinnkou'suikei
UN population estimates
によると
niyoruto
according to
日本人にほんじん
nihonnjinn
(a) Japanese person
no
of
平均へいきん年齢ねんれい
heikinn nennrei ha
(the) average age
48.4歳よんじゅうはってんよんさい
yonnjyuuhattennyonnsai
forty eight point thirty six years old
で、
de,
at
世界せかい
sekai
the world
de
in
もっとたか
mottomo takaku
the highest
なっています。
natteimasu.
is
日本にほん政府せいふは、
nihonn seifu ha,
(the) Japanese government
生産せいさん年齢ねんれい人口じんこう
seisann nennrei jinnkou
people of working age
すう
suu
(the) number (of)
15歳じゅうごさい以上いじょう
(jyuugosai ijyou
over the age of fifteen
65歳ろくじゅうごさい未満みまん)」が
rokujyuugosai mimann)ga
to under the age of sixty five
れば
hereba
decreases if
経済けいざい
keizaino
(the) economy
衰退すいたいまね
suitaiwo maneku
will slow down
との
tono
indicate that
予測よそく
yosoku
predictions
から、
kara,
because
結婚けっこん
kekkonn wo
marriage
奨励しょうれいし、
shourei shi,
encouraging and
育児いくじ
ikuji no
child rearing
支援しえんをしています。
sienn wo shiteimasu.
supporting
少子化しょうしかは、
shoushika ha
the low birthrate
現役げんえき労働者ろうどうしゃ
genneki roudousha ga
the low birthrate
支払しはら
siharau
paid
年金ねんきん保険料ほけんりょう
nennkinn hokennryou
pension funds
で、
de,
with
退職たいしょく高齢者こうれいしゃ
taishoku go no koureisha wo
(the) retired elderly population
ささえる
sasaeru
supports
という
toiu
that
現在げんざい
gennzaino
(the) current
年金ねんきん制度せいど
nennkinn seido
pension system
ni
on
おおきく
ookiku
(a) huge
影響えいきょう
eikyou
influence
します。
shimasu
has
国立こくりつ社会しゃかい保障ほしょう人口じんこう問題もんだい研究所けんきゅうしょは、
kokuritsu syakai hoshou jinnkou monndai kennkyuusho ha,
the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
少子化しょうしか
shousika ga
(the) trend of declining birthrates
つづ
tsuzuku
continues
to
if
2053年にせんごじゅうさんねん
nisenngojyuusannnenn
twenty-fifty three [year]
には
niha
in
日本にほん人口じんこう
nihonn no jinnkou ga
the Japanese population
1億人いちおくにん
ichiokuninn
hundred million [people]
より
yori
than
すくなく
sukunaku
less
なる
naru
fall to
という
toiu
will that
推測すいそく
suisoku wo
(its) prediction
2017年にせんじゅうななねん
nisennjyuunananenn
twenty-seventeen [year]
ni
in
発表はっぴょうしています。
happyou shiteimasu.
announced
有史ゆうし以来いらい
yuushi irai
the dawn of history since
世界せかい人口じんこう
sekai no jinnkou ha
the world’s population
増加ぞうか
zouka wo
to increase
つづけてきました。
tsuzukete kimashita
has continued
とく
tokuni
particularly
現代げんだいでは
genndai deha
in modern times
急激きゅうげき増加ぞうか
kyuugekina zouka ga
(a) rapid rise
られ、
mirare
has been seen
1950年せんきゅうひゃくごじゅうねん
sennkyuuhyakugojyuunenn
nineteen-fifty [year]
ni
in
25億人にじゅうごおくにん
nijyuugookuninn
two point five billion [people]
だった
datta
from
人口じんこう
jinnkou
[populatin]
が、
ga,
when
2020年にせんにじゅうねん
nisennnijyuunenn
twenty-twenty [year]
には
niha
in
70億人ななじゅうおくにん
nanajyuuokuninn wo
seven billion [people]
えました。
koemashita.
(it) rose to exceed
世界せかい人口じんこう
sekai no jinnkou
global population
増加ぞうか問題もんだい
zouka monndai ga
(the) issue of the increasing
このまま
konomama
remains
解決かいけつできなけれ
kaiketsu dekinakere
unsolved
ba
if
ちかいうちに
chikai uchini
before long
食料しょくりょう不足ぶそく
shokuryou busoku
food shortages
ya
and
ほか要因よういんで、
hokano youinn de,
other factors
人類じんるい
jinnrui
human beings
no
of
生存せいぞん
seizonn ga
(the) existence
あやぶまれます。
ayabumaremasu.
will put into jeopardy
国連こくれん
kokurenn ni
the United Nations
加盟かめいする
kamei suru
that are members of
196カ国ひゃくきゅうじゅうろっかこく
hyakukyuujyuurokkakoku
one hundred ninety six nations
のうち、
nouchi,
out of
2019年にせんじゅうきゅうねん
nisennjyuukyuunenn
twenty-nineteen [year]
時点じてん
nojitennde
as of
人口じんこう
jinnkou
populations
1億人いちおくにん
ichiokuninnwo
hundred million [people]
えるくに
koerukuni ha
that exceed [nations]
14カ国じゅうよんかこく
jyuuyonnkakoku
fourteen nations
あり、
ari,
have and
日本にほん
nihonn
Japan
ふくまれます。
mo fukumaremasu.
one of these is
そのような状況じょうきょう
sonoyouna jyoukyou ni
this situation
ありながら、
arinagara,
in spite of
かつて
katsute
once
日本にほん
nihonn ga
Japan
とっていた
totteita
similar to that which embraced
めよ、やせよ」の
umeyo fuyaseyo no
be fruitful and multiply
スローガンすろーがん
suro-gann
(the) slogan
de
with
人口じんこう政策せいさく
jinnkou seisaku wo
population policies
おこなっている
okonatteiru
are adopting
くに
kuni ga
nations
いま
ima mo
still
あります。
arimasu.
some
その
sono
this
背景はいけいには、
haikei niha,
[behind backdrops]
兵士へいし
heishi wo
(their standing) armies
やす
fuyasu
to increase
意図いと
ito
(a) desire
ya
and
医療いりょう制度せいど
iryou seido ga
medical systems
発達はったつしていない
hattatsu shiteinai
having underdeveloped
ために
tameni
caused by
年少者ねんしょうしゃ
nennshousha
young children
no
among
死亡率しぼうりつ
shibouritsu ga
mortality rates
たかく、
takaku,
high
その対策たいさく
sono taisaku
to counteract
でもある
demo aru
due in part to
といわれます。
to iwaremasu.
is said to be
近代きんだい
kinndai
modern times
以前いぜんは、
izenn ha,
before
戦争せんそう
sennsou
wars
ya
and
疫病えきびょう
ekibyou
plagues
自然しぜん災害さいがい
shizenn saigai
natural disasters
人口じんこう調整ちょうせい
jinnkou chousei no
keeping populations in check
役割やくわり
yakuwari wo
(a) part in
たしていました。
hatashite imashita.
played
少子化しょうしかは、
shoushika ha,
low birthrates
日本にほん
nihonn
Japan
ni
in
かぎらず
kagirazu
not only but in
ほか先進国せんしんこくでも
hokano sennsinnkoku demo
other developed nations
られ、
mirare,
are seen and
これが
korega
this
現代げんだい
genndaino
人口じんこう増加ぞうか
jinnkou zouka no
population growth
歯止はどめになっている
hadome ni natteiru
is keeping down
という
toiu
that
見方みかた
mikata mo
take the view
あります。
arimasu.
some people
ちか将来しょうらい
chikai shourai,
in the near future
おおくの
ooku no
many
人間にんげんしょく
ninngenn no syoku ga
human jobs
AIえーあい
e-ai ni
artificial intelligence by
ってわられる
totte kawarareru
will be replaced
to
that
予測よそくされています。
yosoku sarete imasu
(it) is predicted
世界的せかいてき
sekaiteki ni
global
miru
(a) perspective
と、
to,
from
日本にほん
nihonn no
Japan's
少子化しょうしかは、
shoushika ha,
declining birth rate
歓迎かんげいすべきこと
kanngei subekikoto
(a) welcome development
ともいえます。
tomo iemasu.
could be

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